Sunday, January 3, 2010

No, this is not gonna work Paul Krugman!

I used to think he is "cool". I stopped following him after his debate or more like "cat fight" with historian Niall Ferguson.

Then he sort of justified my "dis-following" of him by acting like a fool.

Really? Full fledged trade wars/protectionism will help America? Really?

Let's examine his logic:

1)"Instead, it[China] follows a mercantilist policy, keeping its trade surplus artificially high. And in today’s depressed world, that policy is, to put it bluntly, predatory."

Um.....Keeping trade surplus high is predatory? Is Germany predatory as well? You can argue the currency peg is "not helpful" but you then have to take into account the GIGANTIC TREASURIES HOLDINGS in the Chinese Foreign Reserve do we? It is quite *CONVENIENT* to DEVALUE/INFLATE your currency when you found the DEBT BURDEN is starting to bother you???

So predatory huh? Who forced a gun at Americans' temple to buy cheap cheap cheap Walmart goods? No one! I may say it is *cheating* when you devalue your currency after consuming so much in the form of debt when it comes to the time to honor your vast debt obligations.

2) "Again, right now the world is awash in cheap money. So if China were to start selling dollars, there’s no reason to think it would significantly raise U.S. interest rates. It would probably weaken the dollar against other currencies — but that would be good, not bad, for U.S. competitiveness and employment. So if the Chinese do dump dollars, we should send them a thank-you note."

Sorry Krugman, Yes, dollar will further depreciate should China or other debtors dump dollars debts/instruments. AND that the U.S. interest rate probably WON't rise(thanks to Fed Reserve). All true. But DOLLAR itself will be "no good" from that point onwards. Imports will be PROHIBITIVELY EXPENSIVE and many Americans will just have to live in stark poverty or even starvation. So my advice: Don't try it.
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