Sunday, November 8, 2009

Global Currency Crisis, really?



What a dramatic statement. USD will probably depreciate quite significantly as per usual over the course of many years (as I explained point #3 in "why hyperinflation with USD is probably unrealistic:"http://globalmacrosport.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-hyperinflation-with-usd-is-probably.html), due to the lack of  volume and competitiveness of the U.S. exports. But to say it will be "utterly destroyed" and that the world is going to adopt a global currency is completely unnecessary.

Imagine. If USD is utterly destroyed, who would be "holding the bag"? EVERYBODY (China, Japan, Middle East, Russia, Rest of Asia, Rest of the World)! No way the international society would, under any circumstances, agree to that, not in a million year's time - which is, approximately, the time guesstimated that the U.S. of A can pay off all of their debts.

There is a grain of truth to the point made by Mr. Vickers, however, concerning the "game" of overly indebted and overly indulgent American society is "unsustainable". Hence the whole rhetoric of U.S. will be printing money like Zimbabwe and that the international society will follow suit to maintain the trade competitiveness and that everybody would be hoarding Gold instead of paper currencies.

Will U.S. just default on their debts or inflate like Zimbabwe to shrink the real value of their debts? Not unless America want to be turned into a "Third World" country paying 15-20% interest rates on in Yen/Euro denominated bond from now on. Or worse yet, no credit/imports at all (as nobody would willing to trade/entrust their precious resources/credit for a worthless, Zimbabwean like currency/economy.)

That being said, Gold "rush" will probably still be played out and it's not a terrible idea to own some gold for your fund. 10% at the most?
Share/Bookmark

No comments:

Post a Comment