Why hyperinflation with USD is probably unrealistic

While I am all for investing in precious metals, particularly gold and silver for a percentage of a strategic asset allocation portfolio for reasons not just inflation hedging, I  am personally skeptical about the case for "collapse of the Dollar" and "Zimbabwe Hyperinflation" to take place in America in the next 5 to 10 years.

1) Fed's money printing/increase in M1 doesn't necessary mean increasing the aggregate money supply due to the collapse of M3 from severe shrinkage of both traditional bank lending and the evaporation of the shadow banking system after the credit crunch. In fact, the "excess liquidity" has been mostly sitting at the vault of the Federal Reserve collecting dust (minuscule interest for the commercial banks). For the decline in M3 supply, see "Money Supply" chart: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

2) Secondly, the contraction of  USD credit extends to outside of America as well. Poland has been issuing Samurai bonds instead of USD bonds since June 2009 and they are doubling the size of the Samurai bond issue recently. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/01/74996/polands-samurai-bond/
The net effect is shrinking USD supply, not expansion.

3) Thirdly, G20 has been Quantitative Easing in concert or coordination (otherwise, there might be the risk of having one currency, say Yuan, getting much stronger then another one, say USD and the Chinese (and Japanese) simply CANNOT afford to have that happening due to the vast trade volume between the two countries). Thus, nobody would "let" the collapse of the Dollar to happen anytime soon - more like a steady, slow-motion decline which is not "conducive" to a massive depreciation/hyperinflation of the USD scenario. Case at hand is Japan, despite of the "no intervention" announcement of late, when YEN strengthened to around 88 per USD, the Japanese Finance Department suddenly reverse their language to the effect of weakening their currency.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVJrD.aD4OBs

4) Japan again. Yes, compared to the size of GDP, Japan has "printed" much more money then the United States and have an even bigger public debt than United States. Meanwhile, Germany, Australia, UK, and many others have much bigger size of "external debt" as a % of their GDP then the United States as well. And yet they have not imploded to Zimbabwe style hyperinflation. In fact, when you examine the way the Fed and the U.S. Treasury is collaborating, so long as there is a willing buyer (the Fed) and there is a "preference" for low interests rate(for U.S. treasury to trim the interest bills), in our case, for both of the debt-ridden Japanese and U.S. government, the arrangement will be "stable": meaning BOJ and the Fed will keep on holding near zero interest rates on the one hand and soaking up any excess issues unsold to the open market/monetizing the public debts and as far as any one can see, and this can go on for quite some time as long as 1) holds, which was what has been happening in Japan for close to 2 decades now.

5) Dollar Trap likely resolved:China and Japan, as well as other major creditors of the U.S. government probably have figured out how to escape the Dollar Trap dilemma as I have pointed out on various finance groups on linkedin and facebook after the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue over the summer 2009:
"Did U.S.-China S&ED 2009 solve the China/Japan Dollar Trap? I think so.

Background info, about 2 weeks ago, I posted this on "Discussions" here:
China should use the U.S. treasuries to take out repos, invest in U.S. non-cyclicals like P&Gs - hedge against dollar demise while NOT hastening the speed of the demise.

* It probably has happened (China figured out how to get money from the U.S. treasuries without triggering a Treasuries/Dollar crash):

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b576ec86-761e-11de-9e59-00144feabdc0.html

* U.S. has already assured "no discrimination" when it comes to SWF investments in U.S. assets in the U.S-China S&ED 2009:

"In addition, the United States confirms that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) process ensures the consistent and fair treatment of all foreign investment without prejudice to the place of origin. The U.S. reaffirms its commitment to the open and non-discriminatory principles for recipients of sovereign wealth fund investment as identified by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. "

http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/072909sed1.html"

Resolving the Dollar Trap was the 1st priority to safeguard the USD from collapsing and we can be confident that it has been "done" for now.

6) UK again. Given the fiscal disaster the U.S. is facing (collapse in tax revenue and enormous and growing financial obligation from medicare/social security etc). When all else fail, U.S. can always seek financial aid from the IMF like the UK did in mid 70s BEFORE going to full blown throwing dollar bills from helicopters to Joe Sixpacks and thus destroying the currency. In fact, Joe Sixpack probably hasn't been able to see the "money" printed thus far save for cash for clunkers or extended unemployment benefits which is not exactly "inflationary".

Why hyperinflation with USD is probably unrealistic