Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Yen stability

Yen is living in a twilight zone of being one of the most prolific currency (M1 per capita wise) and yet suffers little inflation so far. Yet, the Japanese counterpart of the Babyboomers generation is "cashing out" of their retirement savings account in a mob now.


So how it's going to work out? Japanese government will have to do at least one of the following:


1) Roll over the debt by issuing new JGBs, but who is going to buy them? Not the Japanese savers this time, as they are net sellers as mentioned above. Probably banks, pulling the old tricks of BOJ lending at cheap rate to finance Japanese banks investing at slightly higher rates in JGBs.


2) Unstimulus/budget cutting.http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/breaking-views/story.html?id=2083037

3) Raise Taxes. Always unpopular but ultimately might be necessary.

I still recall from a few years ago, some BOJ higher-ups have foreseen that the Yen will be in the 150s per USD, and I believe they knew when their citizens are going to retire in bulk and thus generating even more M1 via action 1) above.  It's all good except the USD has also been fast depreciating over the last few years. So we are likely be looking at these two, Yen vs. USD, diving deep together and thus finding "stability" with each other.








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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

From Albourne Village/Guardian: Are women better at hedge funds?

Nice!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oct/19/women-hedge-funds


Are women better at hedge funds?
 
posted by holdenr on Tuesday 20 Oct 2009 07:20 BST
From The Guardian - see full story
The Guardian reports: Hedge funds run by women fall half as much during financial crisis as those managed by men, research shows Female 'hedgies' remain a minority, but have delivered higher annual returns than their male counterparts in the recession

Hedge funds run by women have fallen only half as much during the financial crisis as those managed by men, research shows. The value of female-managed funds dropped by 9.6% in the past year, compared with a plunge of 19% for the rest, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research. Women investment managers also performed better in general over the past decade, with an average annual return of just over 9%, while hedge funds overall delivered 5.82%.
To continue reading, please click "See full story" above.

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Friday, October 9, 2009

Blue Gold

Recently, I moved back to Hong Kong and re-acquainted myself with the Chinese culture. What pops up in my mind is the 5 elements - Gold, Timber, Water, Fire, Earth, thanks to the beautiful mall known as Elements. These Elements nomenclature is also used in Japanese's naming for the weekdays, so it's part of a Pan-East-Asian cultural conceptualization of our world.

Blue gold is actually just water. Yes, H2O.

When we think about gold, black gold (oil) and the blue gold(water), blue gold should certainly trumps the rest as we cannot live without water.

There are signs that the human world is running out of fresh water. I say "human world" because global warming probably evaporates even more water into the air from the seas, it's just that they are not falling back as rains onto the right places at sufficient levels to meet human needs anymore.You may ask why? Nobody really knows but my best guess is that if the air is too hot/warm, the water precipitation will not be able to "condense" itself at the usual regions, they need to be in contact with cold air to condense. That's why Siberia is getting much more rain these days and places which used to get lots of rains, Vancouver, London, gets tons of snow instead because it is only at these time (the cold Winter) that the water precipitation get "cold" enough to condense themselves.For anything beneath these latitudes, droughts (no condensation), think Western United States and Western/Central Australia. For geographical reasons, some areas will always be saturated with water, namely the tropical areas and when the air is so humid and saturated with water, rain comes by easily with or without further warming. In fact, the climate change mostly happens in cooler areas anyways.

Let's take the fussy climate change science out of the equation (assume my reasoning in the previous paragraph is wrong). Just by looking at the rate of human population growth, urbanization and industrialization accompanying with it, we are bound to be stress with fresh water if the original capacity (namely the major rivers and underground water sources) don't get "scaled up" accordingly.

Unfortunately, naturally occurring fresh water is not like a plant that can be expanded and "propped" up like a machine. It is re-charged by rainfalls or depends on glaciers, which takes millions of years to be built up. Some even call the water underground as "fossil water" which just means it is unsustainable like the fossil fuel.

So we have the last James Bond movie's plot, Quantum of Solace, focused on the "Blue gold" beneath the ground, how apt.

Blue gold is not only precious, but it is also critical to our existence. If climate change is going to create more droughts, not only we will be running out of water for drinking, but we will be running out of foods (agriculture uses most of the water), out of fuel (current harvesting of oil from the ground uses lots of water) and running out of industrial activity (industry uses lots of water). You can tell this is just a logical deduction, no scare mongering - massive stress to our living conditions beyond our imagination will start to manifest itself - at least to those who have the least bargaining power in the world.

So what is the solution? If you and I can't think of one, it's fine. Invest in water related businesses, innovations. (it has better be done fast as G2, namely U.S. and China is already under severe stress with water) and let the scientists and innovators of the world be channeled, gravitated to solutions that will resolve/alleviate the shortage of the other kind of gold, Blue gold.
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Thursday, October 1, 2009

Why hyperinflation with USD is probably unrealistic

While I am all for investing in precious metals, particularly gold and silver for a percentage of a strategic asset allocation portfolio for reasons not just inflation hedging, I  am personally skeptical about the case for "collapse of the Dollar" and "Zimbabwe Hyperinflation" to take place in America in the next 5 to 10 years.

1) Fed's money printing/increase in M1 doesn't necessary mean increasing the aggregate money supply due to the collapse of M3 from severe shrinkage of both traditional bank lending and the evaporation of the shadow banking system after the credit crunch. In fact, the "excess liquidity" has been mostly sitting at the vault of the Federal Reserve collecting dust (minuscule interest for the commercial banks). For the decline in M3 supply, see "Money Supply" chart: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

2) Secondly, the contraction of  USD credit extends to outside of America as well. Poland has been issuing Samurai bonds instead of USD bonds since June 2009 and they are doubling the size of the Samurai bond issue recently. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/01/74996/polands-samurai-bond/
The net effect is shrinking USD supply, not expansion.

3) Thirdly, G20 has been Quantitative Easing in concert or coordination (otherwise, there might be the risk of having one currency, say Yuan, getting much stronger then another one, say USD and the Chinese (and Japanese) simply CANNOT afford to have that happening due to the vast trade volume between the two countries). Thus, nobody would "let" the collapse of the Dollar to happen anytime soon - more like a steady, slow-motion decline which is not "conducive" to a massive depreciation/hyperinflation of the USD scenario. Case at hand is Japan, despite of the "no intervention" announcement of late, when YEN strengthened to around 88 per USD, the Japanese Finance Department suddenly reverse their language to the effect of weakening their currency.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVJrD.aD4OBs

4) Japan again. Yes, compared to the size of GDP, Japan has "printed" much more money then the United States and have an even bigger public debt than United States. Meanwhile, Germany, Australia, UK, and many others have much bigger size of "external debt" as a % of their GDP then the United States as well. And yet they have not imploded to Zimbabwe style hyperinflation. In fact, when you examine the way the Fed and the U.S. Treasury is collaborating, so long as there is a willing buyer (the Fed) and there is a "preference" for low interests rate(for U.S. treasury to trim the interest bills), in our case, for both of the debt-ridden Japanese and U.S. government, the arrangement will be "stable": meaning BOJ and the Fed will keep on holding near zero interest rates on the one hand and soaking up any excess issues unsold to the open market/monetizing the public debts and as far as any one can see, and this can go on for quite some time as long as 1) holds, which was what has been happening in Japan for close to 2 decades now.

5) Dollar Trap likely resolved:China and Japan, as well as other major creditors of the U.S. government probably have figured out how to escape the Dollar Trap dilemma as I have pointed out on various finance groups on linkedin and facebook after the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue over the summer 2009:
"Did U.S.-China S&ED 2009 solve the China/Japan Dollar Trap? I think so.
Background info, about 2 weeks ago, I posted this on "Discussions" here:
China should use the U.S. treasuries to take out repos, invest in U.S. non-cyclicals like P&Gs - hedge against dollar demise while NOT hastening the speed of the demise.

* It probably has happened (China figured out how to get money from the U.S. treasuries without triggering a Treasuries/Dollar crash):

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b576ec86-761e-11de-9e59-00144feabdc0.html

* U.S. has already assured "no discrimination" when it comes to SWF investments in U.S. assets in the U.S-China S&ED 2009:

"In addition, the United States confirms that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) process ensures the consistent and fair treatment of all foreign investment without prejudice to the place of origin. The U.S. reaffirms its commitment to the open and non-discriminatory principles for recipients of sovereign wealth fund investment as identified by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. "

http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/072909sed1.html"

Resolving the Dollar Trap was the 1st priority to safeguard the USD from collapsing and we can be confident that it has been "done" for now.

6) UK again. Given the fiscal disaster the U.S. is facing (collapse in tax revenue and enormous and growing financial obligation from medicare/social security etc). When all else fail, U.S. can always seek financial aid from the IMF like the UK did in mid 70s BEFORE going to full blown throwing dollar bills from helicopters to Joe Sixpacks and thus destroying the currency. In fact, Joe Sixpack probably hasn't been able to see the "money" printed thus far save for cash for clunkers or extended unemployment benefits which is not exactly "inflationary".

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